Through the first half of 2026, three North American trade deadlines were converging within weeks of each other, and together they threatened to reprice duty exposure across the US, Canada, and Mexico corridor. All three have now passed. The USMCA review 2026 took place on 1 July, Canada’s steel and aluminium remissions faced a 30 June cliff, and the Section 122 surcharge hit its statutory expiry on 24 July.
None of the three resolved the way the pre-deadline coverage assumed, and the combined result is more nuanced, and in places more favourable to compliant importers, than the “cliff” framing suggested. This guide sets out exactly how each deadline landed, what changed, what did not, and where importers of IT hardware, aerospace, automotive, and manufactured goods stand now.
The Three Deadlines: At a Glance
- USMCA joint review (1 July 2026): the US declined to renew the agreement in its current form, but USMCA remains fully in force through 2036. Annual reviews now begin.
- Canada remissions (30 June 2026): the key relief did not end. Canada extended remissions on steel and aluminium for auto, aerospace, and healthcare use to 1 July 2027. Only the horizontal remission on US-origin inputs lapsed.
- Section 122 surcharge (24 July 2026): expired on schedule at 10%, with no rise to 15%, but was replaced the same minute by a Section 301 forced-labour tariff of 10% or 12.5%.
- The constant through all three: USMCA-compliant goods remain exempt from the Section 122 surcharge and its Section 301 replacement, which makes compliance status the single most valuable lever an importer has.
What the USMCA Review Actually Decided
The United States, Canada, and Mexico held the first mandatory joint review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement on 1 July 2026, six years after the agreement entered into force, under Article 34.7. The outcome was not the straightforward renewal or the clean amendment that much of the pre-review coverage anticipated.
USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer stated that the United States did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form, and that, as a result, the USMCA is not renewed. Mexico and Canada, by contrast, both confirmed their support for extending the agreement for a further 16 years. The disagreement is the story: the US wants concessions before it commits, while its partners wanted continuity.
Crucially, though, the agreement did not lapse. Under its own terms, USMCA remains fully in force and is scheduled to run to 1 July 2036 unless terminated earlier. The US decision not to renew triggers an annual joint review process, which will now run each year until the parties either agree to a 16-year extension, which remains available at any time through written confirmation, or the agreement expires in 2036.
For importers, the practical position today is simple: the rules governing USMCA trade are unchanged, and qualifying goods can continue to claim preferential treatment exactly as before. What has changed is the horizon: instead of one six-year review, there is now an annual cycle of negotiation and uncertainty. Our detailed analysis is in our guide to the 2026 USMCA review and what it means for importers.
The most consequential open question remains the treatment of Section 232 tariffs. Roughly a third of USMCA-compliant goods from Canada and Mexico still sit under Section 232 steel and aluminium duties, now at 50%, and whether the annual review process eventually carves compliant goods out of those tariffs is the outcome importers should watch. Greer has previously floated separate bilateral protocols with Canada and Mexico, echoing the side letters used to resolve the 2018 to 2019 Section 232 disputes, and a fresh round of US-Mexico bilateral talks followed in the week of 20 July. The direction is toward bilateral bargaining, not trilateral certainty.
The 30 June Canada Remission Deadline: Mostly Extended, Not Ended
This is the deadline where the reality diverged most sharply from the pre-deadline expectation. The pre-June coverage widely warned that Canada would end its temporary steel and aluminium remissions on 30 June 2026, raising costs on aerospace, automotive, healthcare, and manufacturing inputs. That is not what happened for the categories that matter most.
On 3 June 2026, the Canadian government announced it was extending the key remissions by a full year, to 1 July 2027. The extended relief covers steel and aluminium goods used in auto and aerospace manufacturing, and goods used for public health, healthcare, public safety, and national security purposes, exactly the categories that had been flagged as facing a cliff. Canada also amended the Steel Derivative Goods Surtax Order to extend the exemption for auto and aerospace inputs to the same 1 July 2027 date. For importers in those sectors, the feared 30 June cost increase simply did not arrive.
There is a genuine change to note, however. The broad horizontal remission on US-origin steel, aluminium, and automotive products did lapse after 1 July 2026, so importers relying on that general relief, rather than the sector-specific auto, aerospace, and healthcare remissions, lost it.
Canada also continues to run reduced tariff-rate quotas on primary steel from non-CUSMA sources and case-by-case remission for goods with no domestic alternative. The net effect is that most of the relief the pre-deadline coverage said would vanish was in fact preserved for another year, while a narrower slice ended. The practical task is to confirm which remission your goods actually rely on, because the answer determines whether anything changed for you at all.
Section 122 Expired 24 July, But Did Not Disappear
The third deadline resolved on schedule, but with a twist that matters for landed cost. Canadian-origin goods that do not qualify as USMCA-compliant had been subject to a 10% surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which authorises temporary balance-of-payments surcharges of up to 15% for a maximum of 150 days. That 150-day clock, which began on 24 February 2026, ran out at 12:01 a.m. ET on 24 July 2026. Congress did not extend it, and the rate was never raised to 15%, so the surcharge expired exactly as the statute required.
The twist is that expiry did not mean relief. At the same moment Section 122 lapsed, a new Section 301 forced-labour tariff took effect, applying 10% or 12.5% duties across roughly 60 economies covering the overwhelming majority of US imports. For non-USMCA-compliant Canadian goods, the 10% Section 122 line was effectively replaced by a Section 301 line at a similar or higher rate, with one important difference: the Section 122 surcharge was temporary by design, while the Section 301 layer carries no statutory expiry and can only be removed by litigation or negotiation.
The detail of how the surcharge worked is in our analysis of the Section 122 tariff and what importers need to know, and the replacement measure in our guide to Section 301 tariffs 2026.
The single most important point for North American importers is that USMCA-compliant goods from Canada and Mexico were exempt from the Section 122 surcharge and remain exempt from its Section 301 replacement. The handover from one measure to the next did not close that carve-out. If anything, it raised its value, because the measure importers are now avoiding is permanent rather than temporary.
The Three Deadlines, and How Each Resolved
| Date | Event | What Actually Happened | Who It Affects |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 June 2026 | Canada steel and aluminium remission deadline | Key relief extended to 1 July 2027 for auto, aerospace, and healthcare use. Only the horizontal US-origin remission lapsed. | Manufacturers, aerospace, and healthcare importers into Canada |
| 1 July 2026 | USMCA joint review | US declined to renew in current form; agreement stays in force to 2036; annual reviews now begin | All importers on the North American corridor, especially steel and aluminium users |
| 24 July 2026 | Section 122 surcharge expiry | Expired at 10% on schedule, no rise to 15%, but replaced the same minute by a Section 301 forced-labour tariff (10% or 12.5%) | Importers of non-USMCA-compliant Canadian-origin goods |
The pattern across all three is consistent, and it is not the pattern the “cliff” framing predicted. Duty exposure on the North American corridor did not fall off a cliff, and in the Canada case the feared increase was largely deferred. What changed instead is the character of the risk: temporary measures with fixed end dates are giving way to open-ended ones, and trilateral certainty is giving way to an annual bilateral negotiation cycle. The importers best placed for that shift are the ones whose goods can demonstrably claim USMCA origin.
Why Section 232 Makes This More Complex
The Section 232 regime changed substantially earlier in 2026, which is why the USMCA review’s treatment of it matters so much. Under Proclamation 11021 of April 2026, the tariffs now apply to the full customs value of steel, aluminium, and copper products rather than just the metal content, derivative tariffs were simplified to a flat rate, a 10% tariff was introduced on derivatives containing primarily US-sourced metal, and the inclusions process was eliminated. A reduced 15% rate on certain industrial and electrical grid equipment was set to run through 2027 to support US production investment.
The shift to full-value assessment is the change that matters most for landed cost, because it widened the base on which the tariff is calculated. For importers of derivative products containing steel or aluminium, including a great deal of IT hardware, machinery, and manufactured equipment, duty exposure is now larger than it was under the old metal-content method.
With the Section 232 steel rate now at 50%, and roughly a third of USMCA-compliant Canadian and Mexican goods still caught by it, the question of whether the annual USMCA review process eventually exempts compliant goods is the single biggest variable in North American landed cost. Our breakdown is in our analysis of Section 232 tariffs on full customs value.
Who Is Most Exposed Now
- Aerospace and automotive: the sectors that were most exposed to the Canada remission cliff are, for now, the ones that got a reprieve, since the auto and aerospace remissions were extended to 2027. But Section 232 still applies to Canadian automotive exports, so the relief is partial and sector-specific rather than complete.
- IT hardware and machinery importers: the full-value Section 232 assessment on derivative products containing steel and aluminium raises landed cost on a wide range of equipment, and whether the USMCA annual review carves compliant goods out is the key medium-term question.
- Importers relying on the horizontal Canada remission: those who depended on the broad US-origin remission, rather than the sector-specific relief, did lose it after 1 July 2026, and should confirm their new exposure.
- Manufacturers using aluminium and steel inputs: the sector-specific relief on inputs for manufacturing, processing, and packaging was largely preserved to 2027, but importers should verify which order their goods fall under.
- Importers of non-USMCA-compliant Canadian goods: these lost the temporary Section 122 surcharge only to gain a permanent Section 301 line, so their exposure did not fall and is now harder to shed.
The common thread remains what it was before the deadlines: USMCA compliance status is the single most valuable lever an importer has. Compliant goods are exempt from the Section 122 surcharge and its Section 301 replacement, and stand to benefit most from any Section 232 relief the annual review process eventually produces. Confirming and documenting USMCA origin is still the highest-value action most North American importers can take.
The deadlines passed, but the corridor is still repricing, and USMCA origin is the lever that decides your exposure. Carra Globe acts as importer of record across 175+ countries, including the US, Canada, and Mexico, verifying and documenting USMCA origin, modelling landed cost under the new Section 301 and Section 232 reality, and keeping your entries compliant as the annual review cycle unfolds.
What North American Importers Should Do Now
- Confirm your USMCA compliance status for every product. This is still the most important step, and the deadlines have only raised its value. USMCA-compliant goods are exempt from the Section 122 surcharge and its permanent Section 301 replacement, and are best positioned for any Section 232 relief the annual review eventually delivers. Verify and document origin across your full product range now.
- Re-model your landed cost against the post-deadline reality. The picture has changed: Section 122 is gone but a Section 301 layer replaced it, the Canada auto and aerospace remissions were extended, and Section 232 remains at full value. Rebuild your duty model on what is actually in force today, not on the pre-deadline forecasts. Use our landed cost guide to structure this.
- Confirm which Canada remission your goods rely on. If you import US-origin inputs into Canada, check whether you depended on the sector-specific auto, aerospace, or healthcare remission, which was extended to 2027, or the horizontal remission, which lapsed after 1 July 2026. The distinction determines whether your costs changed.
- Review your Section 232 derivative exposure. With the tariff assessed on full value and the steel rate at 50%, confirm how your steel and aluminium derivative products are classified and valued, because the base is wider and the rate is higher than many models assume.
- Audit your bill of materials, HTS classification, and origin documentation. Trace the steel, aluminium, and component origins in your bill of materials, confirm the HTS classification of each affected product, and make sure your supplier origin certificates support a USMCA claim. This is the documentation that determines whether a product qualifies for compliant treatment, and it is the first thing scrutinised if challenged.
- Get your importer of record and compliance structure right. A period of open-ended duty change is exactly when accurate classification, valuation, and a compliant import structure protect you. For the foundational role, see our explainer on what an Importer of Record is and does, and our guide to reducing import duty into Canada in 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the outcome of the USMCA review 2026?
On 1 July 2026 the US declined to renew USMCA in its current form. The agreement did not lapse: it remains fully in force through 2036, and an annual joint review process now begins.
For importers, the existing rules are unchanged and qualifying goods can still claim USMCA preferential treatment. What changed is the horizon, from a single six-year review to an annual cycle of negotiation, with the treatment of Section 232 tariffs on compliant goods the key open question.
Did Canada end its steel and aluminium remissions on 30 June 2026?
No, not for the main categories. On 3 June 2026 Canada extended the remissions on steel and aluminium for auto, aerospace, and healthcare use to 1 July 2027. Only the broad horizontal US-origin remission lapsed.
So the widely predicted 30 June cost increase largely did not arrive for aerospace, automotive, and healthcare importers. The task now is to confirm which specific remission order your goods rely on, since that determines whether anything changed for you.
Did the Section 122 tariff expire, and did costs fall?
Section 122 expired at 10% on 24 July 2026, with no rise to 15%. But a Section 301 forced-labour tariff took effect the same minute, so most non-compliant costs did not drop.
The key difference is durability: Section 122 was temporary, while the Section 301 replacement has no expiry. USMCA-compliant goods from Canada and Mexico were exempt from Section 122 and remain exempt from the Section 301 replacement.
How does USMCA compliance affect my tariff exposure now?
It is the single most valuable lever an importer has. Compliant goods are exempt from the Section 122 surcharge and its permanent Section 301 replacement, and are best positioned for any Section 232 relief.
Because the temporary measures are being replaced by open-ended ones, the value of a defensible USMCA origin claim has risen, not fallen. Goods that cannot demonstrate USMCA origin now face the broadest and most durable exposure to the corridor’s tariff changes.
Is the USMCA going to be terminated?
Not imminently. Despite the US declining to renew, USMCA remains in force and is scheduled to run to 2036. The 16-year extension is not foreclosed and can still be confirmed in writing at any time.
The annual review process introduces medium-term uncertainty rather than immediate termination, and both Mexico and Canada have signalled they want to extend. The realistic planning assumption is continuity with ongoing renegotiation, not a near-term end.
For companies importing IT hardware, aerospace components, automotive parts, medical equipment, and manufactured goods across the North American corridor, the passing of these three deadlines has changed the tariff landscape without simplifying it. Carra Globe’s Importer of Record services provide the classification discipline, landed-cost modelling, and compliant import structure to navigate the new Section 301 and Section 232 reality, across 175+ countries. With tighter US enforcement also in effect this year, covered in our analysis of the 2026 CBP customs audit landscape, getting the structure right has never mattered more.
This guide is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal or customs advice. The USMCA review process, Section 232 and Section 301 measures, and Canadian remission orders are subject to change as the annual review cycle proceeds. Always consult a licensed customs broker or trade attorney before making classification, sourcing, or entry decisions.